OO 3811 · STL → MSP

departs 3:50 PM CT · arrives 5:36 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↑ 3pm departures from STL are often late

↑ Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at MSP that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,420 ft Visibility4.4 mi Precip0.12 in

MSP (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3811 · STL → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?