OO 3821 · MKE → MSP

departs 6:55 PM CT · arrives 8:20 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from MKE are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MKE that day

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at MSP that day

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MKE (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip1.09 in

MSP (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3821 · MKE → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?