Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3846
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
OO 3846 · LAX → TUS
departs 7:21 PM PT · arrives 8:59 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 18%
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from LAX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.