Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3846
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
OO 3846 · LAX → TUS
departs 7:21 PM PT · arrives 8:59 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Fri 10/2 19%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
TUS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into TUS at that hour are often late
↓
Gusts to 29 kt forecast at TUS that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.