Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3949
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
OO 3949 · DTW → ELM
departs 9:45 PM ET · arrives 11:09 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 22%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELM more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at ELM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELM?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
ELM usually runs smoothly
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,240 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.15 in
ELM (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.