Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3949
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
OO 3949 · DTW → ELM
departs 9:45 PM ET · arrives 11:09 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 47%
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELM more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at ELM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELM?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
ELM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
ELM (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.