OO 4177 · MFE → AUS

departs 12:42 PM CT · arrives 2:12 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±4 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at MFE that day

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ MFE usually runs smoothly

↓ 12pm departures from MFE are usually not late

Weather at each end

MFE (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.26 in

AUS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,233 ft Visibility7 mi Precip1.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4177 · MFE → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?