Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4243
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
OO 4243 · DTW → ESC
departs 9:35 PM ET · arrives 11:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 11%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at ESC more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±6 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ESC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at ESC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ESC?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DTW that day
↑
9pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.16 in
ESC (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.