Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4794
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
OO 4794 · SBN → ORD
departs 9:05 AM ET · arrives 9:16 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SBN is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
SBN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.42 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.