OO 501 · DEN → ACV

departs 11:22 AM MT · arrives 1:12 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at ACV more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ACV?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at ACV that day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ACV (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 501 · DEN → ACV

Odds over time

How late will it get to ACV?