Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5407
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
OO 5407 · ORD → XNA
departs 8:40 AM CT · arrives 10:39 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 9/30 33%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 14%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±6 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1.0 in of rain forecast at XNA that day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into XNA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
XNA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 7.66667 mi Precip 0.95 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.