Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5407 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

OO 5407 · ORD → XNA

departs 8:40 AM CT · arrives 10:39 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±3 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to XNA?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at XNA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into XNA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility3.66667 mi Precip0.42 in

XNA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.93 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5407 · ORD → XNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to XNA?