UA 1076 · TPA → DEN

departs 4:14 PM ET · arrives 6:02 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.57 in

DEN (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1076 · TPA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?