UA 1114 · IAH → SAN

departs 2:20 PM CT · arrives 3:50 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at IAH that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SAN that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.05 in

SAN (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1114 · IAH → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?