UA 1409 · EWR → AUS

departs 8:40 PM ET · arrives 11:30 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,233 ft, 2.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.69 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1409 · EWR → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?