Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1453 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

UA 1453 · SFO → IAD

departs 4:34 PM PT · arrives 12:55 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1453 · SFO → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?