Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1453 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

UA 1453 · SFO → IAD

departs 4:34 PM PT · arrives 12:55 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Visibility down to 1 mi forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility2 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,933 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1453 · SFO → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?