UA 1515 · SFO → MCI

departs 4:29 PM PT · arrives 10:15 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.60 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1515 · SFO → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?