UA 1546 · BWI → LAX

departs 7:23 PM ET · arrives 9:52 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1546 · BWI → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?