Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1546 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

UA 1546 · BWI → LAX

departs 6:59 PM ET · arrives 9:28 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at LAX that day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1546 · BWI → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?