UA 1581 · ORD → BTV

departs 7:25 AM CT · arrives 10:39 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts −18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BTV?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ BTV usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

BTV (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1581 · ORD → BTV

Odds over time

How late will it get to BTV?