Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1617 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

UA 1617 · ORD → LGA

departs 3:00 PM CT · arrives 6:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±9 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.11 in

LGA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1617 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?