UA 1845 · SFO → RNO

departs 10:36 AM PT · arrives 11:49 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RNO?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

RNO (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1845 · SFO → RNO

Odds over time

How late will it get to RNO?