UA 2196 · IAH → RDU

departs 12:03 PM CT · arrives 3:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.05 in

RDU (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2196 · IAH → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?