UA 2628 · LAX → ACV

departs 10:34 AM PT · arrives 12:34 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at ACV more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ACV?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from LAX are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at ACV that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

ACV (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2628 · LAX → ACV

Odds over time

How late will it get to ACV?