UA 2812 · ORD → DCA

departs 4:00 PM CT · arrives 7:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
24%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2812 · ORD → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?