UA 490 · ORD → SAT

departs 9:25 AM CT · arrives 12:29 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.93 in

SAT (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,567 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip6.53 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 490 · ORD → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?