Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 490 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

UA 490 · ORD → SAT

departs 9:10 AM CT · arrives 12:12 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±4 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↓ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precip0.17 in

SAT (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip2.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 490 · ORD → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?