UA 561 · ORD → MCI

departs 12:40 PM CT · arrives 2:20 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±2 pts −20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 2.6 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.75 in

MCI (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.64 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 561 · ORD → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?