Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1281
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 1281 · DAL → BWI
departs 7:20 AM CT · arrives 11:15 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 23%
Sat 10/3 6%
Mon 10/5 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.9 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.86 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.