Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1416
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 1416 · DAL → TPA
departs 4:10 PM CT · arrives 7:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 48%
Mon 10/5 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
83%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
83%
Leave 15+ late
73%
Arrive 1h+ late
43%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 81% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
83%
Yes 83%
No 17%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 73% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
73%
Yes 73%
No 27%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed −22 pts in 24h
−22 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
16%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
20%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,367 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 5.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DAL that day
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
4pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 3.06 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.57 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.