Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1441
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 1441 · DCA → MCO
departs 5:25 PM ET · arrives 8:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 9/30 31%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3 25%
Mon 10/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 48% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.