WN 1495 · DCA → HOU

departs 6:56 PM ET · arrives 9:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to HOU?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

HOU (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.73 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1495 · DCA → HOU

Odds over time

How late will it get to HOU?