WN 1498 · DCA → MCI

departs 3:41 PM ET · arrives 5:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±3 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.63 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1498 · DCA → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?