Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1501
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 1501 · DEN → BWI
departs 11:50 PM MT · arrives 5:15 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 26%
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±0 pts
+18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.