Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1501
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 1501 · DEN → BWI
departs 11:50 PM MT · arrives 5:15 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 45%
Fri 10/2 26%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.