WN 1506 · DCA → MDW

departs 3:01 PM ET · arrives 4:08 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1506 · DCA → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?