WN 1521 · DCA → STL

departs 12:01 PM ET · arrives 1:19 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ 12pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,420 ft Visibility4.4 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1521 · DCA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?