WN 1761 · DEN → RDU

departs 10:42 AM MT · arrives 4:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1761 · DEN → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?