Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 176
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 176 · BWI → MCO
departs 4:30 PM ET · arrives 7:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 9/30 24%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3 19%
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 43% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.