Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 176 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 176 · BWI → MCO

departs 4:30 PM ET · arrives 7:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 176 · BWI → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?