Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1864
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 1864 · LAS → AUS
departs 7:40 AM PT · arrives 12:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 9/30 11%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 10%
Mon 10/5 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
AUS is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3.66667 mi Precip 1.00 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.