WN 1916 · FLL → DCA

departs 12:31 PM ET · arrives 3:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts +25 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
27%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
38%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 33 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at FLL that day

↑ 12pm departures from FLL are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

FLL (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip2.25 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1916 · FLL → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?