Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1992
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 1992 · HOU → JAN
departs 8:35 PM CT · arrives 10:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Wed 9/30 41%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 29%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 29%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAN more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±4 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at JAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAN?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from HOU are often late
↓
JAN usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
JAN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.