Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1992 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 1992 · HOU → JAN

departs 8:35 PM CT · arrives 10:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 69h before departure

Arrive at JAN more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±2 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAN?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from HOU are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at HOU that day

↓ JAN usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HOU (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.37 in

JAN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1992 · HOU → JAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAN?