Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2082
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 2082 · HOU → SMF
departs 7:35 AM CT · arrives 9:25 AM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 12%
Mon 10/5 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↑
HOU is prone to delays
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from HOU are usually not late
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.73 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.