Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2164
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 2164 · JAX → MDW
departs 7:15 PM ET · arrives 8:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 40%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 967 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.