Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2165
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 2165 · BUR → SFO
departs 1:15 PM PT · arrives 2:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 26%
Sat 10/3 12%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±3 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SFO that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.