Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2187
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 2187 · SNA → LAS
departs 5:00 PM PT · arrives 6:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 64%
Mon 10/5 17%
Fri 10/9 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SNA that day
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.