Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2187
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2187 · SNA → LAS
departs 5:00 PM PT · arrives 6:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.